Ivanova T.V., Chernyshova T.N., Prokopev A.V., Ivanova A.A.
Analysis and Forecasting of Agricultural Production in the Chuvash Republic
The article presents a forecast for agriculture development in the Chuvash Republic up to 2022 according to three scenarios: optimistic, probabilistic and pessimistic. Agriculture occupies a special position in the region's economy and is a system-forming industry. The share of agriculture in the gross regional product makes 9%, which is significantly higher than in other regions of the country, and the share of residents living in rural areas is 36.6%. Structurally, the agriculture of the Chuvash Republic is quite balanced. During the study period from 2010–2019, significant positive changes in the industry can be noted. Thus, the production of basic agricultural products increased by 1.93, and the gross output of basic crops increased by 2.16. However, despite the positive trends, there are still problems in certain areas. The production of the animal husbandry main products during the study period decreased by 135.6 thousand tons; the agricultural machinery fleet in agricultural organizations decreased by 1.97; the number of livestock decreased by 147.3 thousand heads. In order to predict future changes in the industry, the authors, based on the dynamics of indicators for 2010–2019 that characterize agricultural production in the Chuvash Republic, and using the Excel program, proposed three options for the development of the situation for 2020–2022 – optimistic, probabilistic and pessimistic. Studies have shown that a pessimistic development scenario is more likely to be implemented, which requires immediate corrective actions in the agricultural sector of the Chuvash Republic.
- O strukture valovogo regional’nogo produkta Chuvashskoi Respubliki [About the structure of the gross regional product of the Chuvash Republic]. Available at: http://minec.cap.ru/news/2019/03/13/o-strukture-valovogoregionaljnogo-produkta-chuvashs (Accessed 28 Dec. 2020).
- Prokopev A.V., Ivanova T.V. Problemy innovatsionnogo razvitiya sel’skogo khozyaistva v Chuvashskoi Respublike [Problems of innovative development of agriculture In the Chuvash Republic]. Oeconomia et Jus, 2020, no. 1, pp. 34–45.
- Regiony Rossii. Sotsial’no-ekonomicheskie pokazateli – 2020 g. [Regions of Russia. Socio-economic indicators – 2020]. Available at: http://gks.ru/bgd/regl/b20_14p/Main.htm (Accessed 08 Jan. 2021).
- Rossiya vpervye vyshla na 2-e mesto po eksportu zerna, oboidya Ukrainu i Argentinu [Russia for the first time took the 2nd place in grain exports, bypassing Ukraine and Argentina]. Available at: https://sdelanounas.ru/blogs/106724/ (Accessed 05 Jan. 2021).
- Rossiya ustanovila novyi mirovoi rekord po eksportu pshenitsy: 44 mln tonn [Russia set a new world record for wheat exports: 44 million tonnes]. Available at: https://sdelanounas.ru/blogs/ 117537/ (Accessed 06 Jan. 2021).
- Chuvashiya v tsifrakh. 2019. Kratkii statisticheskii sbornik [Chuvashia in numbers. 2019. Brief statistical collection]. Cheboksary, Chuvashstat, 2019, 210 p.
- Ivanova Tatiana V.
- Candidate of Economics Sciences, Associate Professor, Management and Marketing Department, Chuvash State University, Russia, Cheboksary (firstname.lastname@example.org; )
- Chernysheva Tatiana N.
- Candidate of Economics Sciences, Associated Professor of Management and Marketing Department, Chuvash State University, Russia, Cheboksary (email@example.com; ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8232-6922)
- Prokopiev Aleksandr V.
- Candidate of Economics, Associate Professor of Management and Marketing Department, Chuvash State University, Russia, Cheboksary (firstname.lastname@example.org; ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9225-3042)
- Ivanova Anna A.
- Master’s Program Student, Economics Faculty, Chuvash State University, Russia, Cheboksary (email@example.com; )
Ivanova T.V., Chernyshova T.N., Prokopev A.V., Ivanova A.A. Analysis and Forecasting of Agricultural Production in the Chuvash Republic [Electronic resource] // Oeconomia et Jus. – 2021. – №1. P. 44-51. – URL: http://oecomia-et-jus.ru/en/single/2021/1/5/. DOI: 10.47026/2499-9636-2021-1-44-51.