Arkadeva O.G., Tarasova O.S.

Deposit instruments of the Russian financial market in the context of liberalized payments and transfers

Keywords: key rate, faster payments system, deposit policy, ARMAX model, depositor behavior, competition in the deposit market, bank liquidity

The development of deposit instruments in the Russian financial market in 2022–2025 took place in the context of high key interest rate volatility, sanctions pressure and large-scale digitalization, which required banks to increase flexibility in managing their resource base. Liberalization of the payment environment, primarily through the development of the faster payment system, has changed depositor behavior, simplifying the transfer of funds between banks and stimulating capital migration in search of more favorable interest rates and other conditions for deposit products offered by commercial banks. The purpose of the study is to analyze and evaluate transformation of deposit instruments in the Russian financial market in the context of liberalized payments and transfers. The study aims to identify the degree of sensitivity of deposit interest rates to changes in the key interest rate of the Bank of Russia, as well as to determine the impact of new payment infrastructure formats (in particular, the faster payment system) on depositor behavior, the structure of deposit products and the competitive strategy of banks. Materials and methods. The study uses a comprehensive methodological approach, including correlation and regression analysis, time series modeling using the Gretl package, and comparative structural analysis. The empirical basis was data from the Bank of Russia for 2022–2025, including changes in the key interest rate, deposit volumes, and the structure of the banking sector's deposit portfolio. In order to make a preliminary assessment of the impact made by the key interest rate on individual bank deposits, linear regression equations were made; the ARMAX model with an exogenous factor, the key interest rate, was formed to predict profitability of deposits for a period of 91–180 days. Three monetary policy scenarios were considered: maintaining the rate at 18%, reducing it to 17% and reducing it to 16%. The use of statistical criteria confirmed significance of constructed models and made it possible to generate forecasts of interest rate changes for this type of deposits. Results. In 2025, banks began to adapt to an expected reduction in the key interest rate, putting a gradual decrease in profitability into deposit offers; this is confirmed by the ARMAX forecast for June-August 2025 for three scenarios of key rate changes. The most significant factor determining the structure of the deposit portfolio remains the price of attracted resources, determined by the level of the key interest rate, while the impact of transfer liberalization is indirect but increasing, especially in terms of depositor behavior and the speed of reaction to market changes. Conclusions. Increased mobility of depositors in the context of payment liberalization increases the sensitivity of the deposit base to changes in market rates, which requires banks to manage liquidity more precisely. In conditions of instability and competition for public funds, maintaining a balanced liability structure is becoming a critical element of liquidity management, especially for medium and small banks that do not have a stable inflow of budgetary or corporate resources. The research results can be used both to implement monetary policy measures and to develop strategies for banks to manage their resource base in the face of growing technological competition and changing customer behavior patterns.

About authors

Arkadeva Olga G.

Candidate of Economics Sciences, Associate Professor, Department of Finance, Credit and Economic Security, Chuvash State University, Russia, Cheboksary (knedlix@yandex.ru; ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4868-2365)

Tarasova Olga S.

Master's Program Student, Program «Banks and Financial Markets», Chuvash State University, Russia, Cheboksary (olgataras2004@list.ru; )

Article link

Arkadeva O.G., Tarasova O.S. Deposit instruments of the Russian financial market in the context of liberalized payments and transfers [Electronic resource] // Oeconomia et Jus. – 2025. – №3. P. 1-14. – URL: https://oecomia-et-jus.ru/en/single/2025/3/1/. DOI: 10.47026/2499-9636-2025-3-1-14.