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Ivanov A.P., Savderova A.F., Urusova I.N.
Tools of regional economic policy in the context of a pandemic: quantification of the impact of healthcare costs on mortality reduction
Keywords: pandemic, COVID-19, health economics, public finances, budget policy
The coronavirus pandemic has put the healthcare system to a severe test and sparked lively debate about the appropriateness of various measures to tackle the pandemic (both administrative and financial). It should be noted that in large countries, a significant part of the responsibility for combating coronavirus fell on the regional authorities. The response to the pandemic is therefore of interest as a precedent for the implementation of public health policy, which was carried out primarily by the regions. The purpose of the study is to quantify the impact of increased expenditures of consolidated budgets of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation on healthcare on reducing excess mortality from COVID-19. Materials and methods. The regional mortality estimates are taken from earlier studies on this subject. Other data were obtained from official sources: from the UIISS – population size by region and age, population density and number of hospital beds per capita, data on the financing of health care from regional budgets – from the reports of the Federal Treasury. In addition, a classification system developed by the Petersburg Politics Foundation was used as a proxy for the strictness of the coronavirus restrictions. To assess the causal relationship, the authors used multiple linear regression with instrumental variables. The parameters were calculated using the least squares method. Results. To correctly identify the causal relationship, a preliminary test was conducted to assess whether the increase in funding was independent of other, unaccounted-for variables, such as the level of funding in the previous year and the severity of the impact the region faced as a result of the pandemic; no significant correlation was found. Several model specifications were then examined; the most significant of these found that regional healthcare expenditure had a strong impact on excess mortality, comparable to the impact of the strictness of lockdown restrictions. A rise in per capita expenditure of 1,000 rubles reduced the mortality rate by an average of 3.4 per 100,000 inhabitants. Conclusion. The increase in regional healthcare spending in 2020 led to a statistically significant reduction in excess mortality from COVID-19: the effect proved to be comparable to that of strict lock-down measures, but, unlike these, it is not subject to any socio-legal constraints on its scale. The quantitative estimates obtained make it possible to assess the contribution of regional fiscal policy to saving lives (around 27,700 people) and can serve as a basis for justifying the levels of intergovernmental transfers when planning regional budgets in emergency situations.
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About authors
- Ivanov Alexey P.
- 4th year Student, Economics Faculty, Chuvash State University, Russia, Cheboksary (ivanov-ap@inbox.ru; )
- Savderova Alina F.
- Candidate of Economics Sciences, Associate Professor, Department of Finance, Credit and Economic Security, Chuvash State University, Russia, Cheboksary (savderova@mail.ru; ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0521-1398)
- Urusova Irina N.
- Candidate of Economics Sciences, Associate Professor, Department of the Finance, Credit and Economic Security, Chuvash State University, Russia, Cheboksary (urusova_irina@mail.ru; ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4541-7104)
Article link
Ivanov A.P., Savderova A.F., Urusova I.N. Tools of regional economic policy in the context of a pandemic: quantification of the impact of healthcare costs on mortality reduction [Electronic resource] // Oeconomia et Jus. – 2026. – №2. P. 30-39. – URL: https://oecomia-et-jus.ru/en/single/2026/2/3/. DOI: 10.47026/2499-9636-2026-2-30-39.
