Yurlov F.F., Kokorina D.A.

The methodology of choosing optimal solutions in industrial enterprises under conditions of uncertainty of the external environment (using the example of the automotive industry)

Keywords: decision-making, uncertainty, efficiency matrix, controllable factors, uncontrollable factors, Wald and Savage criteria, automotive industry

In the economic literature, the problem of choosing optimal solutions under conditions of uncertainty and the problem of a multi-criteria assessment of their effectiveness are traditionally considered separately. Traditional strategic analysis frameworks provide only qualitative guidance, without offering any quantitative forecasts regarding a strategy’s profits or profitability. This discrepancy becomes critical in the context of sanctions pressure. The situation in the automotive industry in recent years serves as a clear example: disruptions to supply chains, loss of suppliers and closure of sales markets are forcing manufacturers to focus more on sustainability and risk management, rather than simply on cutting costs. The purpose of the study is to develop a methodological framework for selecting optimal solutions at industrial enterprises in the face of external uncertainty, based on performance matrices that take account of sector-specific characteristics (using the automotive industry as an example) and enable a multi-criteria evaluation of alternatives. Materials and methods. The theoretical basis consists of works on the theory of decision-making, game theory, industrial economics and strategic management. The empirical base includes data on the work of automotive enterprises in 2022–2025, publications on crisis management, conference materials. General scientific methods (analysis, synthesis, induction, deduction) were used. An efficiency matrix was used to evaluate the solutions, taking into account controlled and uncontrolled factors. The methodological basis is the section of game theory known as ‘games with nature’. Results. The limitations of classical strategic analysis matrices (BCG, McKinsey, ADL/LC) are analyzed: they provide high-quality recommendations and do not take into account uncertainty of the external environment. All factors affecting an industrial enterprise are divided into two groups: controllable (investment, technology, logistics) and uncontrollable (sanctions, inflation, competitors’ actions). An effectiveness matrix has been developed, where the rows represent management alternatives, the columns represent external environment scenarios, and the cells contain quantitative values for the indicator (profit, profitability, market share). The transition from qualitative positioning to quantitative forecasting is proposed. The Wald, Savage and Hurwitz criteria were used to select the optimal solution. The methodology has been tested using automotive manufacturers as a case study (production fell by 22.2% over the first 10 months of 2025). The factors considered to be within the industry’s control include import substitution, supplier diversification and digitalisation of logistics. Eight stages of the methodology have been developed. Conclusions. The developed efficiency matrix makes it possible to quantify the consequences of management decisions under different environmental scenarios and thereby overcome the limitations of classical qualitative matrices. Distinguishing between controllable and uncontrollable factors helps to draw a clear line between management’s area of responsibility and external risks. Combining a multi-criteria approach with optimality principles (maximin, maximax, that of Hurwitz) makes it possible to tailor the choice of strategy to specific objectives and priorities. Field trials of the proposed methodology at automotive manufacturing companies have confirmed its applicability in the context of sanctions and the breakdown of cooperative ties.

About authors

Kokorina Daria A.

Candidate of Economics Sciences, Associate Professor, Department of Economics and Economic Security of the Educational and Scientific Complex for Countering Economic and Tax Crimes, Nizhny Novgorod Academy of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Russia, Russia, Nizhny Novgorod (daria52rus@yandex.ru; )

Yurlov Felix F.

Doctor of Technical Sciences, Professor, Department of Digital Economics, Nizhny Novgorod State Technical University named after R.E. Alekseev, Russia, Nizhny Novgorod (ffyurlov@gmail.com; )

Article link

Yurlov F.F., Kokorina D.A. The methodology of choosing optimal solutions in industrial enterprises under conditions of uncertainty of the external environment (using the example of the automotive industry) [Electronic resource] // Oeconomia et Jus. – 2026. – №2. P. 63-72. – URL: https://oecomia-et-jus.ru/en/single/2026/2/6/. DOI: 10.47026/2499-9636-2026-2-63-72.